Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Red Sox are toast ...

See, this is why I don't like making predictions ...especially for a 162-game season. I know 40 games seems like a small sample size, but it is 25% of the schedule. Anyone who has watched the 2010 Red Sox play knows this team is toast. There simply is something missing. I can't quite put my finger on it. Outside of the glaring holes (offense, bullpen, inconsistent starting pitching, etc), this version of the Red Sox is not good. They are becoming unlikeable and unwatchable.

Last month, I predicted the Red Sox would win 93-96 games and win the AL East and go on to win the World Series. May I have a do over?? Lets review my comments shall we? "We must embrace the era of run prevention. The Red Sox are going to be there in the end. They're a 93-96 win type of team. They'll compete for the division title with the Yankees and the Rays. Their defense and pitching will be superior to majority of the league." Seriously Mike? Seriously?

Run prevention? More like run assistance. Teams are scoring at will on the Sox. They are last in the AL in runs allowed. That's borderline co-ed softball league material folks. For what we all thought was a strength (pitching), it sure looks like a weakness at the moment. The starters have been maddening. Josh Beckett, at last check, had an ERA over 7.00. 7!!! John Lackey has not put it all together yet. Daisuke ...gross. Lester struggled out of the gate ...again. Buchholz at least has been good. He's kept the team in every game he's pitched. The bullpen quite frankly sucks right now. Can the old Jonathan Papelbon please stand up? That performance in Yankee stadium last night was downright disgusting.

The Red Sox are going to be there in the end. No they won't. Not unless David Ortiz from 2004 shows up. Not unless Josh Beckett actually pitches like he's a $68M player. Not unless Adrian Beltre decides to play some defense (and hit a few homeruns). Not unless ...not unless ...not unless. See a pattern developing here?

They're a 93-96 win type of team. Good lord, more like a 83-86 win type of team. They need to get their act together or they'll be fighting with the Jays for third place come September.

They'll compete for the division title with the Yankees and the Rays. HA, wow Mike you nailed this one. The Yanks and Rays are so far superior to the Red Sox right now it's not even funny. The Rays are for real. They do EVERYTHING well. They pitch, they hit, the run, they play defense. Solid, solid team. I could easily see them winning rings come October. They are quite scary.

Their defense and pitching will be superior to majority of the league. This hurts. The Red Sox were built around pitching and defense. On the surface, not a bad idea. You win in October with these two key elements. Very rarely do teams slug their way to a title. The Sox pitching has been inconsistent and their defense has been terrible. Joe Maddon called Adrian Beltre the best 3rd basemen he has ever seen. He already has 7 errors and we haven't even made it to Memorial Day.

As a diehard Red Sox fan, I am usually the king of the rose colored glasses. I'm finding it harder and harder as we move along to root for this team. They appear to be a poorly assembled team loaded with a few costly and past their prime veterans. The Red Sox still have talent ...Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, etc etc. They must move quickly here or else they'll be out of the race before Memorial Day. Scary thought.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

NFL draft 2010

One of the best 2-day stretches (well now 3-day stretches) of the year ...the annual collegiate football draft. Millions of folks scour the internet weeks and months before the draft reading the thousands of mock drafts from the so called experts. I, like those millions, can't get enough. I love it ..I admit it, I am an NFL draft junkie. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay are two guys I'd love to grab a burger with.

If all falls according to plan, Sam Bradford will be a St. Louis Ram, Ndamukong Suh a Detroit Lion, and Gerald McCoy a Tampa Bay Buc. What happens starting with the Redskins at #4 overall is where the debate begins. For those Patriot fans out there, who is the best fit at #22? If Sergio Kindle and Dez Bryant are both on the board, what does Bill do? If I'm running the war room (and god knows I'd love to), I would be torn. 49% of me says grab Dez Bryant, wide receiver from Oklahoma State ...a new toy for Tom terrific - albeit one with question marks. 51% of me says go defensive with stud outside linebacker Sergio Kindle from Texas.

The Super Bowl years featured a dominant defense and an adequate offense. To get back to that level, Bill needs to continue his defensive rebuilding project. The offense needs work as well ..WR, RB, TE ...however these are positions that can be focused on in the later rounds. Kindle would provide much needed boost to the pass rush. He provides alot of what Willie McGinest used to feature during his golden days. Sergio Kindle is the safe pick. He ensures ultimate value for the Patriots. Dez Bryant will be tough to pass up and I'm glad, at the end of the day, I don't have to make the actual decision. It sure would be exciting ...the next Randy Moss for Tom Brady. One thing's for sure here ..this is an important draft for the New England Patriots. There must be alot of hits and very few misses.

Monday, April 5, 2010

2010 MLB predictions

I'm not much of a believer in predicting anything, nevermind a season that lasts from April through October. So, naturally, here are my non-biased predictions for the 2010 season.

AL East - New York Yankees (97-65)
AL Central - Chicago White Sox (92-70)
AL West - Anaheim Angels (90-72)
AL Wild Card - Boston Red Sox (95-67)
AL Champion - Boston Red Sox (defeating Yankees in ALCS)
AL MVP - Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay
AL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez, Seattle

NL East - Philadelphia Phillies (94-68)
NL Central - St. Louis Cardinals (93-69)
NL West - Colorado Rockies (92-70)
NL Wild Card - Atlanta Braves (91-71)
NL Champion - Philadelphia Phillies (defeating Cardinals in NLCS)
NL MVP - Albert Pujols, St. Louis
NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay, St. Louis

World Series Champion - Boston Red Sox
(defeating Phillies in 7 games)

Friday, April 2, 2010

Boston Red Sox 2010 Preview

The 2009 season for the Boston Red Sox ended with a thud - a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim ...a team they had previously owned in the postseason (winning 9 of last 10). The lasting image for Sox fans was Jonathan Papelbon hanging his head after giving up 3 runs in the 9th inning of game 3, highlighted by a run scoring single by Vladimir Guerrero.

Turning the page into 2010, the Red Sox and their fans have high expectations. Then again, don't we always? Two World Series titles after an 86-year drought will do that to a region. This past offseason Theo and gang put an emphasis on run prevention. The question is, "Is run prevention a planned theme or a necessary one?" Given the departure of Jason Bay combined with the declines of David Ortiz and Mike Lowell and the inability to sign or trade for a big bat (Adrian Gonzalez anyone?), were the Sox forced into this direction? Or perhaps they are still spinning from being spurned by Mark Teixeira last year? Regardless of the reasons, we must embrace the era of run prevention. The Red Sox are going to be there in the end. They're a 93-96 win type of team. They'll compete for the division title with the Yankees and the Rays. Their defense and pitching will be superior to majority of the league. The question is whether or not their lack of offensive depth will hurt them against the very best?

Here we are on the eve of opening day and the rival Yankees are in town. What a way to start the season. As we get into the grind that is the major leage season (remember, it's a marathon not a sprint), let's review the team and their prospects for 2010. Gone is Jason Bay and his 30+ HRs and 110+ RBIs. Arriving to Fenway are veterans John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro. Returning are team leaders Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Victor Martinez and JD Drew. The pitching staff is strong boasting one of the best (if not the best) rotations in the game and a deep bullpen. Highlighting the top of the staff are Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and the aforementioned John Lackey - 3 perennial all-stars and Cy Young candidates. Patrolling the bullpen is Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okijima, and young fireballer Daniel Bard.

Regardless of how the offense performs, their pitching will keep them in every game. Having 3 aces is a luxury not many teams can afford. Toss in Clay Buchholz and Tim Wakefield and the Sox starters (if healthy) have the chance to boast five 15 games winners. I believe the Sox offense will be very good against the bad teams. However, their offense as a whole may hinge on how good David Ortiz will be. He struggled mightily for 2 months last season. 2 months! He was able to bounce back and put up decent power numbers (28 HRs and 99 RBIs). Ortiz must get off to a better start to balance out the lineup. The Red Sox can not afford to give him as much latitude this season.

The Sox top 4 will be dynamic. Ellsbury is coming off a 70 steal season and poised for greatness. Can he get 90? Pedroia is a year removed from the AL MVP and will provide his typical .300 AVG/.400 OBP/gold glove caliber defense from the #2 hole. Victor Martinez is now the everyday catcher. He's also in a contract year, so should produce. You can pencil Martinez in for .300 AVG, 25 HRs, and 100 RBI. Kevin Youkilis is the cleanup hitter. He's the heart and soul of the offense providing consistency this team desparately needs night in and night out. At the end of they day, Youkilis will be among the top vote getters for the AL MVP. His versitility in the field will provide the Sox the luxury to move pieces around the infield. Come July, should the Sox go after Adrian Gonzelez, Youkilis could move to 3rd base for the 1st baseman's arrival. Overall the top 4 in this lineup have a chance to be special. They'll set the table for Ortiz, JD Drew, Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro. For all the talk of run prevention, the Sox very well may be (again) in the top 3-4 in runs scored. The opportunity is there for a productive lineup.

The 2010 Boston Red Sox feature many changes ...all having a chance to provide the Sox an American League East championship and perhaps more. Their pitching and defense will be very good. Can the offense, outside of the top 4, produce consistenty enough to keep up with the Yankees, Rays and the rest of the American League beasts. We'll know pretty soon. Bring on baseball!

Should the Pats draft Tim Tebow?

If I was the player personnel guru for the New England Patriots (sadly I'm not), I would not draft Tim Tebow (unless of course he's available in round 4 - which he won't be). The Patriots are in a precarious position heading into the 2010 season. They need another influx of young talent on a team that has some glaring holes to fill. Last year's draft was productive and a great start to the retooling process. With their top 4 picks (all within the top 60), the Belichickians selected strong safety Pat Chung, cornerback Darius Butler, defensive lineman Ron Brace, and gigantor offensive lineman Sebastian Vollmer. All 4 of these guys made an impact on last year's season. Another year like last and the Pats are back in business.

Now fast forward to the NFL draft in a few weeks, the Pats are again in prime position with 4 picks in the top 53 (1-1st round pick (No. 22) and 3-2nd round picks (No. 44, No. 47, No. 53). This draft is also considered by many experts to be deep. With the uncertainty of the NFL labor discussions (possibility of no football in 2011), a large number of underclassmen have entered the draft. The talent pool is deep -- most believe 2 rounds worth of first round talent. The Pats so happen to have a few high priority needs - defensive end, outside linebacker, wide receiver, running back, and tight end. The chance of restocking this team for future success is high. Again, putting on my imaginary Patriots player personnel hat, I do NOT take Tim Tebow with 1 of my top 4 picks. Use the picks wisely - draft for the need, not the potential of what could be 4-5 years down the road.

Tim Tebow is a great story. He's the epitome of what a student-athlete should be. He is hard working, dedicated, coachable, tough, and smart. Essentially to sum him up in 4 words: He is a winner. He is a 2-time national champion and won 35 games as a starter over a 3-year span in college. I think some team in the NFL will give him a shot at quarterback and most likely take him in the first round. However, I hope it is not the Patriots.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Jets or Colts?

Is this God's cruel way of punishing Patriots fans for all the success of the past decade? How is one to root -- for the New York Jets or the Indianapolis Colts? To be honest, I am torn at the moment. Seeing as I can't count my vote to have the game cancelled and removed from our memories, I must sit here debating, who do I root for?

The easy answer is the Colts. They don't have any "bad" guys. Can you root against Peyton Manning? Reggie Wayne? Dwight Freeney? The one person I can say yes to is Bill Polian. However, big picture he has nothing to do with the on the field play day to day - he's not a player nor is he a coach. His complete and utter hatred of Bill Belichick and the Patriots has been clear for years. He is the main reason why the "chuck" rule came into effect. Defensive backs can no longer maul receivers outside of 5 yards from the line of scrimmage. Polian cried and moaned to get the rule change shortly after Ty Law and company manhandled the Colts yet again in Foxboro during the 2003-04 playoffs. Outside of Polian, I find it hard to root against a single person within that organization.

So I took a different approach. Lets look at this from the Patriots perspective. From 2001-2009, there has been no team as consistantly dominant as the Colts and the Pats. The Patriots have won 3 Super Bowls to the Colts 1. The Colts have won 115 regular season games to the Patriots 114. The Colts feature Peyton Manning, who has won 4 regular season MVP awards. The Patriots feature Tom Brady who has won 2 Super Bowl MVP trophies. The numbers go on and on. As a Patriot fan, this game comes down to ultimate decade supremecy. A Colt victory and eventual Super Bowl title could put the Patriots title of team of the decade in jeopardy. So do I root for the Colts?

Now we move on to the Jets. Lets face it, I'd rather watch paint dry while poking out my eyes than actually "root" for a team from New York ...and one coached by someone as arrogant and stupid as Rex Ryan. However, last week against the Chargers something strange occurred. I actually found myself rooting for the underdog Jets at the end of the game. I have no idea why. Something came over me. Something changed. I had been pulling for the Chargers. Perhaps it was their defense, led by all world cornerback Darrelle Revis or perhaps it was rookie Mark Sanchez. The embattled quarterback has been through your typical rookie season. He threw 20 interceptions and at times looked lost. However, just like the team he leads, he stayed focused and confident. Sanchez has made the plays the Jets needed at the right times. Now he finds himself in the AFC title game against Peyton Manning and the Colts.

I ask the question again, who do I root for? The Jets or the Colts? I'll go with the Colts, as much as I dispise Bill Polian and as much as I want the Patriots success to not be overshadowed. The Colts winning also sets up a more intriguing matchup in the Super Bowl with either the New Orleans Saints or the Minnesota Vikings. If my favorite team can't be involved, then I must root for the best chance at a great Super Bowl. I do give credit to the Jets for making it as far as they have. They were once 4-6 and left for dead. Since then they have won 7 of 8 and are 1 step from the ultimate goal ...a Super Bowl title.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Breaking down the NFL playoffs

Finally, the real season begins. For 12 teams, all the hard work put in during offseason workouts, meetings, mini-camps and the regular season has come to fruition. They say once you get in, anything can happen ...just get in and see what you can do. This year there are teams that are riding the wave in and teams that are limping in. With the weekend wild card games slated to start off on Saturday with the Jets and Bengals, here is a quick breakdown of how I would rank all teams.

1. San Diego Chargers - winners of their last 11 games, no team is hotter than the Chargers. They are the most complete team in the playoffs. Philip Rivers has made huge strides this year and has again demonstrated he is amongst the elite quarterbacks. Did you know LT scored 12 TD's this year? The biggest question mark with San Diego is at head coach. Can enbattled Norv Turner make the jump from retread to Super Bowl winner?

2. Indianapolis Colts - the Colts will go as far as Peyton Manning takes them. He's the league MVP and key to everything they do. However, questions remain after Jim Caldwell took over the starters half way through their eventual loss to the New York Jets. Even with history staring him in the face, Caldwell pulled back. Now heading into the playoffs, the Colts will not played a real meaningful, competitive game of football in 3 weeks. Past history suggests that's not so good. However, need we all not forget, they do have the best player in the NFL - Peyton Manning.

3. Minnesota Vikings - For the first 11 weeks of the season, the Vikes appeared on the fast track for greatness this season. Then the Favre/Childress feud came into our living rooms and they lost 3 of 4. They appeared to right the ship a bit with the blowout win over the Giants to end the season. However, there are questions heading into the playoffs. How will the offensive line hold up? Will Brett Favre continue his magical season? What will the health of Percy Harvin be?

4. Dallas Cowboys - heading into December, I never would have picked the Cowboys as a favorite to win the Super Bowl. Their annual December swoom appeared on track with back to back tough losses where they scored a combined 14 points. But a huge win in New Orleans spearheaded their revival and have them playing outstanding football at the right time. Their defense is stout and the offense is finding their groove. Can Tony Romo take that next step and become the leader Jerry Jones wants?

5. New Orleans Saints - for all the talk about a perfect 16-0, record breaking season, the Saints sure did fizzle the past 3 weeks. Going as far back as their thrashing of the New England Patriots, they have not played up to their previously set capabilities. In losing 3 games to end the season, they may have caused irreperable damage to their confidence. 2 of the losses came to at home, to the Cowboys (a team they may see again) and the lowly Tampa Bucs. Did they peak too soon? I find it hard to believe with Drew Brees and all of the weapons on offense, along with their opportunistic defense that they won't make a deep run.

6. Green Bay Packers - Brett Favre who? Aaron Rodgers has made everyone forget the debate. He's a star and has a plethera of weapons at his disposal. Combined with their defense, the Packers are a dangerous team. They have a tough first-round matchup, having to travel to the Arizona to play the defending NFC champion Cardinals. Both teams can sling the ball around the field. The question will be who's defense will make the play in the end to win and move on?

7. New England Patriots - in Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, you can never count them out. However, one must wonder how they will overcome the huge loss of Wes Welker. He was their team MVP and sparkplug. The burden of filling his shoes lies on Julian Edelman. Remind you, he's a 7th round draft pick who was playing quarterback at Kent State last year. As much as he may mimic Welker, he is not the man. More pressure falls onto Brady and also Randy Moss. Can Moss shed his past playoff struggles and provide the big play capability the Pats need? Can the Pats defense step up and come of age a bit? More importantly, can they generate a pass rush?

8. Philadelphia Eagles - the Eagles come into the post-season as one of the hotter teams. Despite losing to Dallas 24-0 to end the year, falling from the #2 seed, and NFC East champs, down to the #6 seed and a wild card birth. The key will be Donovan McNabb. On paper he has one of the better offensive teams in football with young, fast, talented playmakers all around him - Desean Jackson, Jeremy Macklin, Brent Celek et al. Andy Reid, the Eagles head coach, has never lost a playoff opener - he is 7-0. Will the trend continue in Dallas? The Eagles have the tools to make a run.

9. Arizona Cardinals - the defending NFC champions are back in the playoffs for another run. Last season they were in the same position, #4 seed, and came within a few minutes of winning the Super Bowl. They are dangerous. Their offense can put up points in minutes and their defense can put pressure on opposing offenses. Will the injury to Anquin Boldin hurt their chances or will we see other wide receivers such as Steve Breasten and Earl Doucet step up? Pride is a big thing in football and the Cardinals may be in position to defend their NFC crown with another run.

10. New York Jets - of all the teams in the playoffs, the Jets may be the most dangerous for 2 reasons. They have the #1 rated defense and the #1 rated rush offense. Those are the 2 main ingredients for a successful playoff run. Rex Ryan has the Jets believing in themselves again. After falling to 4-6 in late November, the Jets have won 5 of 6 to get into the playoffs. However, they were benefited by the Colts and Bengals both resting players, clearing the path for the Jets. The biggest question mark lies at quarterback. Can rookie Mark Sanchez make the plays when needed and avoid the big mistakes that have littered his rookie season thus far?

11. Baltimore Ravens - the Ravens appear to have the formula for winning playoff football. They have two beast running backs in Ray Rice and Willis McGahee and they play solid defense. However, they have a lack of wide receiver star power and are wildly undisciplined. Costly penalties were abound all season, that in the end may kill their chances. But you can never count out the Ravens. They have proud, successful players such as Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. The Patriots will have their hands full in round 1.

12. Cincinnati Bengals - statistically speaking, the Bengals have the biggest hill to climb should they want to make it to Miami. They are the least proficient in terms of scoring points. They do feature 1,200 yard rusher Cedric Bensen and pro-bowl caliber quarterback Caron Palmer. However, the Bengals have faced quite a few road blocks this season that would do in most every team in the NFL. Early in the season, defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer lost his wife and a few weeks back they lost wide receiver Chris Henry, 26. Will the Bengals be able to overcome all the obsticles or will their season end quickly and sadly?